File Size: 1931 KB
Print Length: 342 pages
Simultaneous Device Usage: Up to 4 simultaneous devices, per publisher limits
Publisher: McGraw-Hill Education; 1 edition (July 12, 1999)
Publication Date: July 12, 1999
Sold by: Digital Services LLC
Language: English
ASIN: B000FA5L40
Text-to-Speech: Enabled
X-Ray: Not Enabled
Word Wise: Enabled
Lending: Not Enabled
Enhanced Typesetting: Not Enabled
Best Sellers Rank: #615,101 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store) #29 in Kindle Store > Kindle eBooks > Business & Money > Economics > Inflation #47 in Books > Business & Money > Economics > Inflation #1379 in Kindle Store > Kindle eBooks > Business & Money > Accounting
Having left Wall Street over a year ago I am amazed at how little attention the media, Wall Street & the Fed have given to Deflation. In my opinion the probability of a deflationary scenario is higher than ever. This book helps you prepare for such tumultuous economic times. I rank it a 5 star book, an increasingly rare rating for me. I gave this book five stars due to the excellent analysis and insightful commentary about what occurs in deflation and, more importantly, the graphical depictions the book has throughout it. It would be ignorant to mention that Mr. Shilling has been talking about deflation non-stop since the late 80's - especially after the '87 stock market crash. Can anyone remember the story about the boy who cried "WOLF!" too many times?Talking finance without graphs is tough for the reader so I give kudos to Mr. Shilling in this regard.As I like to say (and Mr. Shilling points this out), the 1980's was the age of government spending. The 1990's was the age of the consumer buying binge as individual debt levels have soared. The average person has $8500 in credit card debt vs. 2500 in 1990 to put it into perspective.Moving forward, what will drive top-line growth in worldwide sales? - Did you know that the G-8 countries account for roughly 80% of total purchases worldwide and, as a result, weakness in those countries dramatically affects the world economy?Will we end up with too much capacity due to stagnant growth or a retraction in corporate spending?What will be the catalyst to drive economic growth? - The government has over $5 trillion in debt, corporations and individuals are tapped out and factories are running at about 76% of their utilization right now.Buy the book........Read the book........Anyone can learn from this........
This book argues that deflationary forces in the world economy will overcome inflationary ones. Dr. Shilling cites shrinking government spending, a declining role for central banks, mergers and restructuring of businesses to be more efficient, efficiency for new technologies, lower prices from Internet-based competition, deregulation, increased outsourcing and use of third-world countries for first-world activities, a strong dollar, structural problems in Asia, the need for older Americans to save more, and the likelihood of a stock market crash.There is an excellent section on what a world economy experiencing deflation will be like. The key problem is that deflation encourages people to defer spending, which slows down economic growth and stimulates more deflation.The final sections describe investment and business strategies for deflation.Why, then, did I grade the book down two stars? First, because the case for deflation is so oversimplified as to be improbable. The extremely rapid growth of the New Economy will create inflationary pressures on much of what it touches (from skilled employee wages to room to house its operations). And the New Economy will inevitably expand the stock market rapidly, because the growth rate of new technologies is expanding.Second, Dr. Shilling failed to explain that deflation can exist side-by-side with healthy inflation, and that you will have to shift agily to deal with both simultaneously. I thought each mistake was so obvious and basic as to be worth the loss of one star.Even economists realize that economists cannot forecast the economy . . . or stock prices . . . or interest rates. So why are books by economists concerning the future of economic factors of interest?
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